The Academy Awards are my drug. I am addicted. It starts in March and plays through February, and then repeats. Most expected hits flop, a few succeed, and a handful of great movies come out of nowhere. And at the end of each year I am left with conflicted feelings of what 'should have' won and what did. The AMPAS and I don't always agree, but I follow their moves religiously nonetheless.
One week from now all the winners will be set in history. The ceremony is February 24th (Sunday). This year has been great, with a number of 'artsy' films up for big awards, and a few categories being very competitive. A few others, not so much.
With all that said, here are my predictions, with a bit of justification, a bit of 'why I'm picking this instead of the front-runner,' and a bit of humor (hopefully). It's hard to separate head from heart in a lot of situations, and here is no different. But alas, predictions must come.
Best Picture:
I do not want to jinx it, but No Country for Old Men has this in the bag. Eight nominations, tying There Will Be Blood for the most. Second highest box office. A near lock in a few other categories. And more importantly, numerous important guild wins (DGA, PGA, WGA, and the SAG to name a few). If anything else wins it would be an enormous upset -- potentially worse than when Crash beat Brokeback Mountain.
Best Director(s):
This also looks to be win for No Country and the brothers Joel and Ethan Coen. They won the Directors Guild, which pretty much means they win the Oscar. I saw There Will Be Blood a second time today, and cringe when thinking that Paul Thomas Anderson has a shot at winning. Julian Schnabel would be nice, but unlikely. The Coens seem like such a sure thing.
Best Actor:
Daniel Day-Lewis -- he has won literally every major award so far this season. Again, anyone else would have to be a joke by the AMPAS.
Best Actress:
Tricky, tricky. My brain tells me to pick Julie Christie, but Marion Cotillard's performance is what sticks with me. I also think La Vie en Rose is a better movie than Away From Her, and honestly, let's say I predicted Julie Christie and Marion won... I would feel awful. People are contemplating a vote split and Ellen Page picking up for Juno, but I don't see it.
Best Supporting Actor:
Javier Bardem wins, the end.
Best Supporting Actress:
I don't like this category this year because the one person I think should win is the only one out of the five without a shot (Saoirse Ronan). This is legitimately the hardest winner to pick, but I have to go with my gut -- Cate Blanchett.
Best Original Screenplay:
I'm pulling for Ratatouille here, but Diablo Cody's Juno has this one fairly easily. It's just too well-liked not to win.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Another category I see No Country taking, the writers being -- again -- Joel and Ethan Coen. I'd sacrifice my prediction being wrong for The Diving Bell and the Butterfly to win, but there's a slim chance of that happening.
Best Cinematography:
Going with There Will Be Blood on this one. That is my prediction, but honestly all five nominees were amazing and are worthy of a win.
Art Direction:
Again, I think There Will Be Blood will take the Oscar.
Costume Design:
I really want to say Sweeney Todd, but Marion's transformation in La Vie en Rose may be too much to pass on. Plus it looks like the AMPAS didn't take kindly to Tim Burton's new film.
Editing:
Tough call between No Country and The Bourne Ultimatum. The Bourne Ultimatum took the ACE Eddie, and it seems like a good bet, so there we have it.
Original Song:
People will not know which Enchanted song to pick (like with Dreamgirls), and Falling Slowly from Once will win.
Original Score:
This will probably be Atonement's only win for the night. Sad, but hey, what can ya' do?
Animated Feature:
Persepolis has a little love, but Ratatouille has a lot more. A lot, a lot.
Semi-educated guesses and random shots in the dark:
Foreign Language Film: The counterfeiters (Austria)
Sound: No Country for Old Men
Sound Editing: No Country for Old Men
Visual Effects: Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
Makeup: La Vie en Rose
Animated Short: Peter & the Wolf
Live Action Short: The Tonto Woman
Documentary Short: La Corona
Documentary Feature: No End in Sight
Am I predicting a No Country sweep? Why yes, yes I am. Will it happen? Maybe, maybe not. I think it should. We shall see on Sunday.
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